portugal-legal-españa

Portugal Economic Outlook

 

Stronger domestic demand seems to have kicked the economy into a higher gear in Q1, according to preliminary estimates. Higher imports of capital goods in the quarter suggest the upturn was led by fixed investment. A buoyant domestic economy compensated for a downturn in the external sector led by weaker export growth, which widened the current account deficit more than three-fold. Turning to Q2, consumer confidence improved in April, which bodes well for private consumption, while business sentiment remained resilient. Meanwhile, on 10 May, Parliament rejected a proposal that sought to award teachers a retroactive pay hike to compensate for losses during the austerity era. The bill was dismissed after the prime minister threatened to resign, warning that it would undermine efforts to balance the budget. With his party subsequently extending its lead in the polls, his gamble seems to have paid off.

Portugal Economic Growth

The economy is set to lose momentum this year, as a slowdown in key trading partners weighs on exports, while domestic demand is also expected to expand at a weaker pace. Moreover, although EU structural funds will aid the rollout of several delayed investment projects, tighter credit conditions are seen weighing on private consumption and fixed investment. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.

Portugal Economy Data

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Population (million) 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3
GDP per capita (EUR) 16,283 16,641 17,360 17,963 18,736
GDP (EUR bn) 170 173 180 185 193
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) -1.1 0.9 1.8 1.6 2.7
Consumption (annual variation in %) -1.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3
Investment (annual variation in %) -5.1 2.3 5.8 1.5 9.2
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 7.0 4.3 6.1 4.4 7.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 4.7 7.8 8.5 4.2 7.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -1.7 0.7 2.5 2.7 4.1
Unemployment Rate 16.5 14.1 12.7 11.2 9.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -7.2 -4.4 -2.0 -3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 129 131 129 130 126
Money (annual variation in %) 1.9 0.9 4.4 8.9 8.0
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.9 1.6
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.6 1.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) -0.5 -1.8 -2.4 -2.8 3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.0 0.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %) 16.0 -26.8 10.7 -11.9 15.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD) 1.38 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13
Current Account (% of GDP) 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 2.7 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.9
Trade Balance (EUR billion) -9.7 -11.0 -10.7 -11.2 -13.9

 

Fuente:

https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/portugal

Escriba una respuesta o comentario